Tropical Storm Debby made landfall as a Category 1 Hurricane in the Big Bend Region of Florida near the town of Steinhatchee around 7 A.M. EDT Monday morning. This region of the Sunshine State is sparsely populated, so this thankfully prevented widespread structural wind damage from the intense 80 mph storm. However, many coastal locations in the northwestern Florida peninsula recorded 6-10 feet of storm surge as it barreled onshore, inundating homes and businesses along much of the western Florida coast.
Debby has now weakened to a tropical storm with sustained winds of 45 mph as of 10 PM Monday evening. At this time, it was located over extreme north Florida, near the Georgia state line, continuing to slow its forward speed which only prolongs the impacts heading into the middle and end of this week. Debby is forecast to continue tracking northeast, wobbling off the US coast, and briefly strengthening over the Atlantic Ocean as it slows to a mere crawl near the Carolinas Tuesday through Thursday. It will then move back into South Carolina before gaining speed and heading north toward the D.C. area later this week.
The overall setup explains why this tropical system will struggle to keep trucking northward. Two strong ridges of high pressure located both to the west and east of Debby is forcing the tropical storm to remain squeezed in between, causing the steering currents to significantly weaken and nearly collapse over the Southeast US. A glancing trough over the Northeast US contains the stronger wind shear needed for Debby to become captured and guided along at a faster speed. Therefore, until Debby can push further north into the Mid-Atlantic region, it will greatly struggle to maintain any momentum and could even stall from time to time.
As the tropical storm moves back over very warm ocean waters midweek, the lack of wind shear will allow Debby to strengthen slightly, keeping gusty winds in excess of 50 mph and a storm surge threat from coastal Georgia to the coastal Carolinas. Up to three feet of storm surge is expected from Savannah to southern South Carolina. Meanwhile, areas from Georgetown, SC to Wilmington, NC should only expect around a foot of storm surge.
The most problematic concern moving forward will become the flooding threat as Debby slows down. As it continues to draw in copious amounts of deep tropical moisture from the Atlantic, several inches of rain are expected with widespread catastrophic flooding from Savannah to Wilmington. Many coastal locations from Georgia to North Carolina can expect 10-20" of rain while a handful of spots receive upwards of 20" through the end of this week. Although coastal communities will get the brunt of the flooding impacts, many areas further inland, especially the South Carolina Low Country, will also be at risk for unprecedented flooding. While Debby may not be remembered for the wind and storm surge impacts, the forecast widespread flooding will make this storm go down in history as a prolific rainfall producer.
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