Tonight: The storms will end overnight and it will become partly cloudy with lows in the lower to middle 70s.
Weekend Outlook: The cold front will stall across South Alabama on Saturday. We will still be hot and humid with only a slight chance for a shower. High temperatures will be lower 90s, and the heat index will be 95-100°. Sunday will be partly cloudy, hot, and humid with only a pop-up storm or two. Highs will be in the lower 90s, and the heat index around 100°.
Next Week's Outlook: Alabama will be located west of PTC 4/TS Debby next week. This will allow for drier air to wrap around the west side of the system or across Alabama. That means we will have plenty of sunshine and hot temperatures, but not as humid air Monday through Friday. A rouge shower could pop up, but the chance is very low. High temperatures will heat up into the middle to upper 90s. The heat index will be around 100-105° each day.
Tracking the Tropics: PTC 4 has become Tropical Depression 4 just off the south coast of Cuba. It is not very organized now, but that will change this weekend. TD 4 is expected to move along the western edge of high pressure located near Bermuda. A cold front and trough will pull it NW into the Southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. It has not turned NW yet, so that has caused the forecast track models to shift west. This will allow it to stay over the very warm water longer, giving this system time to strengthen. It will eventually turn NW and then north as the track parallels the west coast of Florida Saturday night into Sunday where it will strengthen into Tropical Storm Debby. There are still some uncertainties with the intensity. Some of the hurricane models show it becoming a hurricane before reaching land.
TD 4 is forecast to make landfall Sunday Night into Monday morning in the Big Bend region of Florida. Heavy rain and flooding is expected across the Florida Peninsula. Alabama will see large swells and a high Rip Current Risk, so stay out of the Gulf Waters this weekend. Since the track is forecast to be farther west, we could see some clouds late on Sunday move across Eastern Alabama.
Once inland, the system will turn NE and emerge off the GA/SC Coast where it will strengthen early next week. At this point there are model differences whether it continues moving NE or stalls and moves back west into GA/SC. If the second scenario occurs then we could see some clouds and rain in Alabama during the middle to later part of next week.
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