Every year leading up to Christmas, our curiosity always begs the question of whether or not we will see a White Christmas? Well, being in the Deep South doesn't place us at very good historical odds. Climatology says that based on record keeping since the late 1800s, Birmingham has a less than 1% chance of a White Christmas any given year.
Even in places such as Memphis, Nashville, and as far north as Saint Louis stand at less than a 10% chance of a White Christmas.
Now that we are around ten days away from the holiday, the weather pattern is starting to unveil itself, and it appears we will be caught in between a pattern shift from cooler to warmer temperatures. The cooler airmass forecast to impact us the weekend before Christmas will be on its way out, retreating back to the northeast. In its wake, milder air will attempt to rush in and replace it.
Questions do remain on exactly how warm the air will be and how soon it rushes in, but confidence is high that at least seasonal temperatures are expected with highs in the upper 50s on Christmas Day. As usually expected during a pattern change, rain is likely to break out somewhere in the southern US during the December 24-27 timeframe, but is is unclear if this will impact central Alabama.
For now, plan on temperatures in the 50s for Christmas Eve and Christmas Day with more clouds than sun and perhaps a rain shower. Of course, as we grow closer, we will fine tune the forecast and any rain chances that may come our way.
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